This editorial is co-written by the Geoscience for the Future team. We are very grateful to scientists from both within and outside of the oil and gas sector for their contributions.
The climate crisis is upon us; global temperatures are rising and the impacts are already being felt. An IPCC report leaked this week warns that warming could soon lead to irreversible “tipping points” in Earth’s natural systems. The evidence for global warming, which is proven to be predominantly caused by fossil fuel combustion, is now so overwhelming that political leaders across the world have declared a Climate Emergency and are rapidly aligning policy and action towards a Net Zero carbon vision.
At Geoscience for the Future, we often discuss how Geoscience is crucial for a more sustainable future; for renewable energy, for much-needed resources, for hazard mitigation. But what about the many geoscientists who still work in the oil and gas industry – what role will they play? Will the climate crisis pull the plug on the sector as we know it? In this editorial, we consider what the climate crisis means for the oil and gas sector by asking scientists to share their perspectives on its future.
Countries where a climate emergency has been declared, either for the entire country (dark blue) or only for some subdivisions (light blue), as of December 2020 (Wikicommons)
Calls for change
The recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report, Net Zero by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector clearly lays out how, if we are to meet Net Zero carbon ambitions, there must be no investment in new fossil fuel supply projects – with immediate effect. Influential world leaders such as US President Joe Biden have called for the elimination of fossil fuels both domestically and globally. And one of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 12, Responsible Consumption and Production, specifically targets the reduction or removal of subsidies* for fossil fuel markets (Target 12.C)*.
These powerful calls for dynamic new investment strategies are happening on a backdrop of government carbon reduction targets. The 2015 Paris Agreement is an international UN treaty that set out to tackle climate change head on. This legally binding international treaty aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, by working on a 5-year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate actions to reduce greenhouse gas and build resilience to raising temperatures. Every country signed up to the Paris Agreement must, in 2024, release a transparent report on the actions taken. Following this there will be a global stock take on progress that will lead to new targets set for the next 5 years. As part of the Paris Agreement, different countries have announced a range of targets for cutting carbon emissions: the UK by 78% by 2035, the EU by 55% by 2030, and the USA by 50-52% by 2030.
In the UK, the North Sea Transition Deal, secured in March 2021, sets out how the UK government plans to eliminate emissions from oil and gas activities in the North Sea by 2050 and pivot the sector towards critical Net Zero infrastructure such as CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), Blue Hydrogen Production and Geothermal. The Deal includes ~£15 billion of funding to support innovation and infrastructure and sets interim targets such as halving greenhouse gases emissions from the sector by 2030. It is expected that up to 40,000 jobs will be supported by the decarbonisation efforts.
The end of oil and gas?
With the phase-out of hydrocarbons for electricity, heat, and transport, and circular economy principles designing out hydrocarbon-derived plastics, many oil and gas companies have already pivoted to become “energy” companies. Will the oil and gas industry soon be no more? Philippa Calver, a PhD Researcher at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change and Teaching Fellow in Sustainability at the University of Salford, believes hydrocarbon exploration and production will be around for some time yet:
“Climate change is moving up the international and national agenda, leading to a reconsideration of the appropriateness of fossil fuel subsidies*. In addition, with growing public appetite for divestment+, it could be assumed that the global oil industry is on the brink of collapse, and oil can be replaced by renewable sources of energy entirely. Whilst this may be true in part, I believe some elements of the industry will prevail. We cannot escape from oil being an easy to store and transport form of energy. Whilst a crash in the global oil market can be expected with funding for new wells in developed economies being hard to access, we cannot ignore the reliance that many households and economies have on this energy store- for example, for lighting and cooking… Additionally, without strong centralised governments willing and able to invest in, legislate for or subsidise greener economies, this shift to renewable or greener alternatives will be slower than desired.”
Energy use per person, 2019 (Our World In Data based on BP & Shift Data Portal)
It’s clear that how we currently live makes society’s transition to carbon Net Zero particularly challenging. For years, we have relied upon oil and gas to power our homes and cars, to help us grow food, and for many other aspects of modern life. Professor Stuart Burley from Keele University, an oil and gas professional, explains why:
“Of all the fuels known to humankind, oil, closely followed by natural gas, represents the optimal combination of energy density, price, storage, transportability and safety. Fossil fuels currently dominate the global energy mix because the world uses astronomical amounts of energy…transitioning from one fuel to another is neither easy or straightforward. It takes time and lots of new technology, along with a huge shift in mindset.”
The energy transition
Although challenging, change is happening. Along with other major energy companies, BP, one of the largest oil and gas operators in the world, has recently announced plans to become a Net Zero company by 2050. Dr Gemma Barrie, a Reservoir Quality Geologist at BP America, gives her perspective on the task ahead:
“The energy transition is just that…. a transitional phase in which we choose to focus on the development of cleaner energy sources, whilst reducing our reliance on carbon-based energy. This transition time can be scary, especially for those of us who work in oil and gas right now. The metaphorical clock is ticking. However, the fantastic thing about our training in geosciences is that we have the skills to adapt our thinking and change our focus. Most of us geologists who work in the oil and gas sector began our training in earth sciences because we have a passion and respect for the natural world. We can be, and should be, part of the energy transition. Having big corporations, like BP, advocating for this energy transition is immensely important. I applaud major companies that are adapting their products to be cleaner. Focusing on safe, efficient, and clean energy sources, which must include hydrocarbons in the short to medium term, is a way for us to maintain our planet for future generations and for global economies and society to maintain the high standard of living we have become accustomed to. It is highly likely that exploration of hydrocarbons will continue to be an important industry, even past 2050. But with the development of newer and more efficient energy sources, the emphasis on hydrocarbon production will inevitably decline.”
The transition has started, but how fast will it be? This comes down to investment decisions that the recent IEA report says must stop now. As Prof. Burley explains, oil and gas companies are still investing in new hydrocarbon exploration:
“Shell declares it is investing in green technologies, but a third of their planned investment for 2021 is still in the upstream sector, and as oil and gas project lifelines operate on an 10+ year cycle, this means it expects oil and gas to provide material cash flow well into the 2030s and probably beyond.”
Shifts in investment decisions are complicated by the continued subsidies offered by many governments worldwide. Six years on from the launch of the UN’s Sustainable Development Agenda in 2015, and despite the growing urgency of the climate crisis and links between fossil fuel consumption and COVID-19 mortality rates, many fossil fuel subsidies are still in place. Not only are oil and gas activities still ongoing, Net Zero geoscience applications such as CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) have been slow to develop. For some of those working in the oil and gas sector, the slow progress of change on the ground has been frustrating. Dr Matt Booth, Senior Geoscientist in the Carbon Dioxide and Hydrogen Storage and Monitoring Group at CGG (a geoscience technology company), gives this perspective on the situation in the UK:
“Take the North Sea as an example, there are still dozens and dozens of active exploration, appraisal, development and production [oil and gas] projects requiring a large workforce to oversee, including geoscientists. By contrast, there are currently only a few CCS [carbon capture and storage] projects in concept or operation in the whole of the UK. I believe geoscientists know the need for energy transition but most still work in the extractive industries because of the lack of energy transition-related jobs in the market. Most companies are transitioning staff into ET [energy transition] who show an interest or have previous experience. This is especially the case for the operating companies who can plan to transform their depleted or end of life fields into storage sites. However, the ET industry is rapidly growing and there are and will be a lot of opportunities out there.”
The future
Let’s look optimistically to the future and imagine a world where the Paris Agreement has been realized and we live in a Net Zero carbon society. What will the oil and gas industry look like then? Philippa Calver suggests it will be a more efficient, more responsible industry that survives:
“The future oil [and gas] industry will be small, and the parts that will succeed will show that they are part of a future sustainable world. There needs to be a shift of focus towards providing cleaner, more efficient and more equitable raw material, including the management and reduction of fugitive emissions including from flaring, and improvements within energy conversion processes. Most importantly, there will be a strong commitment to improving public and environmental safety associated with [the] extraction and transportation of oil.”
The rest of the sector will no longer be working on the exploration and production of hydrocarbon. Instead, they may be working on exploration for CO2 and hydrogen stores, geothermal sources and sinks, and the production of low carbon energy stored in the subsurface. Other geoscience sectors may have emerged – ones that we don’t know of yet. And of course, geoscience sectors outside the energy sector will thrive too. Importantly, the data and know-how within the current oil and gas sector will have enabled this transition. To quote from the Geological Society of London briefing on the role of geoscience in decarbonization: “Geoscience was central to the carbonisation of our environment through the exploration, extraction and use of fossil fuels. The same skills and expertise that developed these resources can significantly contribute to decarbonisation solution”. †
For oil and gas geoscientists, current geoscience students, and those considering a career in geoscience: there will be a low-carbon job sector waiting for you. Given the role of geoscience in enabling net zero, our sustainable future depends on it.
We understand that this editorial has merely scratched the surface on a complicated, thorny, subjective and political issue. Explore more low carbon geoscience stories in our Geoscience for the Future blogs here.
*A subsidy is money granted to an industry to keep the price of a commodity or service low. Currently, the oil and gas sector, globally, is subsidised.
+Divestment from fossil fuels is the opposite of investment- it is where organisations move their money out of oil, coal and gas for both moral, ethical, and financial reasons. These two blogs from Forbes give interesting for and against viewpoints for divestment.
†For more on the role of geoscience in the low carbon transition, beyond energy, see, for example, this 20 minute video on the role of structural geology and structural geologists for net zero, and this Geological Society of London briefing on the role of geoscience in decarbonization.
Feature image by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash